I am working on a player-based projection system, similar to how Bart Torvik does it.
For now, the main projections are team-based, with the main inputs being:
1. Reversion to conference mean.
2. Coaching change factor = a fired coach results in a positive benefit, a good coach hired away produces a negative one.
3. Generic increase in performance for remaining players on roster.
It's okay, and generally mirrors some of the early subjective predictions. But we can do better.
| Player | Class | Height | Avg Minutes | Avg Points | Avg Rebounds | Avg Assists | 2025 Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bella Earle | Jr | 5-10 | 34.6 | 12.2 | 8.2 | 3.8 | Abilene Christian |
| Breanna Davis | So | 5-09 | 2.9 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | Abilene Christian |
| Brooke Jessen | Jr | 6-01 | 4.0 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | Abilene Christian |
| Claire Graham | So | 5-09 | 12.2 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | Abilene Christian |
| Emma Troxell | Fr | 5-11 | 18.8 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 1.0 | Abilene Christian |
| Erin Woodson | Fr | 6-00 | 15.2 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | Abilene Christian |
| Kenadi Rising | Jr | 5-11 | 6.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | Abilene Christian |
| Meredith Mayes | Fr | 6-02 | 11.8 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | Abilene Christian |
| Payton Hull | Fr | 5-11 | 28.4 | 14.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | Abilene Christian |
| Tristin Keller | So | 5-08 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | Abilene Christian |
| Yle Exposito Perez | Jr | 5-07 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | Abilene Christian |
| Zoe Jackson | Jr | 5-08 | 16.1 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | Abilene Christian |