I am working on a player-based projection system, similar to how Bart Torvik does it.
For now, the main projections are team-based, with the main inputs being:
1. Reversion to conference mean.
2. Coaching change factor = a fired coach results in a positive benefit, a good coach hired away produces a negative one.
3. Generic increase in performance for remaining players on roster.
It's okay, and generally mirrors some of the early subjective predictions. But we can do better.
| Player | Class | Height | Avg Minutes | Avg Points | Avg Rebounds | Avg Assists | 2025 Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis Cortez | Fr | 5-11 | 24.1 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.2 | Air Force |
| Clara Teigland | Fr | 5-10 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | Air Force |
| Emily Adams | So | 6-00 | 9.2 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.1 | Air Force |
| Grace Walsh | Fr | 5-09 | 6.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | Air Force |
| Jayda McNabb | Fr | 5-10 | 27.7 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 1.7 | Air Force |
| Jo Huntimer | Jr | 5-07 | 9.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 1.8 | Air Force |
| Jordyn DeVaughn | Fr | 5-06 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | Air Force |
| Keelie O'Hollaren | Fr | 5-10 | 17.5 | 8.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | Air Force |
| Madison Smith | Jr | 5-08 | 27.1 | 11.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | Air Force |
| Marissa Hargrave | Fr | 5-08 | 4.5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | Air Force |
| Milahnie Perry | So | 5-07 | 31.5 | 16.7 | 2.4 | 2.6 | Air Force |
| Parker Brown | So | 6-00 | 3.8 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | Air Force |