I am working on a player-based projection system, similar to how Bart Torvik does it.
For now, the main projections are team-based, with the main inputs being:
1. Reversion to conference mean.
2. Coaching change factor = a fired coach results in a positive benefit, a good coach hired away produces a negative one.
3. Generic increase in performance for remaining players on roster.
It's okay, and generally mirrors some of the early subjective predictions. But we can do better.
| Player | Class | Height | Avg Minutes | Avg Points | Avg Rebounds | Avg Assists | 2025 Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annaliese Griffin | Jr | 6-01 | 30.9 | 11.5 | 5.8 | 1.1 | Arkansas State |
| Bre Sutton | Jr | 5-09 | 15.2 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 0.3 | Arkansas State |
| Crislyn Rose | Fr | 5-08 | 13.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.9 | Arkansas State |
| Kendra Gillispie | Jr | 6-01 | 14.3 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 0.3 | Arkansas State |
| Kiayra Ellis | Jr | 6-00 | 9.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | Arkansas State |
| Linay Bodden | So | 6-02 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | Arkansas State |
| Wynter Rogers | Jr | 6-00 | 26.2 | 6.1 | 7.2 | 1.5 | Arkansas State |