I am working on a player-based projection system, similar to how Bart Torvik does it. For now, the main projections are team-based, with the main inputs being:

1. Reversion to conference mean.
2. Coaching change factor = a fired coach results in a positive benefit, a good coach hired away produces a negative one.
3. Generic increase in performance for remaining players on roster.

It's okay, and generally mirrors some of the early subjective predictions. But we can do better.

Colgate

Player	Class	Height	Avg Minutes	Avg Points	Avg Rebounds	Avg Assists	2025 Team
Abbey Ferguson	So	5-11	5.1	0.7	1.0	0.5	Colgate
Amarah Streiff	Fr	5-10	7.4	2.6	1.4	0.5	Colgate
Chidinma Okafor	So	6-04	6.6	2.5	1.4	0.3	Colgate
Christina Midgette	So	6-00	11.2	1.9	2.6	0.9	Colgate
Ella Meabon	Fr	5-08	13.2	4.1	2.2	0.8	Colgate
Madison Schiller	So	5-08	32.3	7.7	5.4	2.6	Colgate
Morgan McMahon	Jr	5-10	21.1	9.2	2.6	1.7	Colgate
Sophia Diehl	Jr	6-01	29.1	7.6	6.5	1.8	Colgate
Taylor Golembiewski	Jr	5-08	27.5	12.2	3.6	1.8	Colgate