I am working on a player-based projection system, similar to how Bart Torvik does it. For now, the main projections are team-based, with the main inputs being:

1. Reversion to conference mean.
2. Coaching change factor = a fired coach results in a positive benefit, a good coach hired away produces a negative one.
3. Generic increase in performance for remaining players on roster.

It's okay, and generally mirrors some of the early subjective predictions. But we can do better.

Illinois State

Player	Class	Height	Avg Minutes	Avg Points	Avg Rebounds	Avg Assists	2025 Team
Addison Martin	So	6-01	28.8	11.0	4.9	1.7	Illinois State
Caroline Waite	Jr	5-04	16.7	6.6	0.8	0.4	Illinois State
Lauren Cohen	Jr	5-08	4.5	0.7	0.4	0.9	Illinois State
Nevaeh Thomas	Fr	5-11	27.0	15.7	7.1	1.1	Illinois State
Savannah McGowan	Fr	6-02	8.7	3.6	2.7	0.2	Illinois State
Shannon Dowell	Fr	5-10	18.6	9.4	4.1	1.4	Illinois State
Taylor Veach	So	5-11	2.9	0.2	0.2	0.3	Illinois State