I am working on a player-based projection system, similar to how Bart Torvik does it.
For now, the main projections are team-based, with the main inputs being:
1. Reversion to conference mean.
2. Coaching change factor = a fired coach results in a positive benefit, a good coach hired away produces a negative one.
3. Generic increase in performance for remaining players on roster.
It's okay, and generally mirrors some of the early subjective predictions. But we can do better.