I am working on a player-based projection system, similar to how Bart Torvik does it.
For now, the main projections are team-based, with the main inputs being:
1. Reversion to conference mean.
2. Coaching change factor = a fired coach results in a positive benefit, a good coach hired away produces a negative one.
3. Generic increase in performance for remaining players on roster.
It's okay, and generally mirrors some of the early subjective predictions. But we can do better.
| Player | Class | Height | Avg Minutes | Avg Points | Avg Rebounds | Avg Assists | 2025 Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Autumn Smith | Jr | 5-06 | 8.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.5 | Louisiana Tech |
| Ayen Angoi | So | 6-00 | 8.8 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 0.2 | Louisiana Tech |
| Evie Goetz | So | 6-01 | 8.3 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | Louisiana Tech |
| Jianna Morris | Fr | 5-07 | 31.3 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 2.2 | Louisiana Tech |
| Kate Thompson | Jr | 6-02 | 8.9 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 0.3 | Louisiana Tech |
| Mackenzie Wurm | Jr | 6-04 | 8.9 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.4 | Louisiana Tech |
| Melissa Mwanza | Fr | 6-02 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.1 | Louisiana Tech |
| Paris Guillory | Fr | 5-07 | 12.5 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | Louisiana Tech |
| Robyn Lee | Jr | 5-08 | 21.0 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | Louisiana Tech |