I am working on a player-based projection system, similar to how Bart Torvik does it.
For now, the main projections are team-based, with the main inputs being:
1. Reversion to conference mean.
2. Coaching change factor = a fired coach results in a positive benefit, a good coach hired away produces a negative one.
3. Generic increase in performance for remaining players on roster.
It's okay, and generally mirrors some of the early subjective predictions. But we can do better.
Player | Class | Height | Avg Minutes | Avg Points | Avg Rebounds | Avg Assists | 2025 Team |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Amaya Staton | 6-01 | 24.2 | 11.2 | 6.8 | 0.6 | Merrimack | |
Antoinette Okoh | 5-11 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | Merrimack | |
Ava Owens | 5-10 | 18.1 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | Merrimack | |
Cadence Johnson | Fr | 6-00 | 10.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | Merrimack |
Lydia Melashenko | 5-07 | 13.2 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | Merrimack | |
Madison Roman | Fr | 6-00 | 17.3 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 1.3 | Merrimack |
Molly Manion | 5-11 | 11.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | Merrimack | |
Paloma Garcia | Fr | 5-06 | 21.1 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 1.4 | Merrimack |
Rose Caso | So | 5-10 | 15.0 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | Merrimack |
Tara Murray | Fr | 5-11 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Merrimack |
Thalia Shepard | Fr | 5-09 | 20.3 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 0.8 | Merrimack |