I am working on a player-based projection system, similar to how Bart Torvik does it. For now, the main projections are team-based, with the main inputs being:

1. Reversion to conference mean.
2. Coaching change factor = a fired coach results in a positive benefit, a good coach hired away produces a negative one.
3. Generic increase in performance for remaining players on roster.

It's okay, and generally mirrors some of the early subjective predictions. But we can do better.

Mississippi Valley State

Player	Class	Height	Avg Minutes	Avg Points	Avg Rebounds	Avg Assists	2025 Team
Aaliyah Duranham	Fr	5-09	13.0	4.1	3.0	0.4	Mississippi Valley State
Amberly Brown	Jr	6-01	18.6	5.6	3.7	0.6	Mississippi Valley State
Clemisha Prackett	Fr	6-01	6.0	0.0	3.0	0.0	Mississippi Valley State
Gabby Bunch		5-07	19.4	2.4	3.4	1.4	Mississippi Valley State
Ja'la Douglas	Fr	5-10	14.1	4.0	2.5	0.2	Mississippi Valley State
Janna Dauer	Fr	6-03	4.1	0.4	0.7	0.1	Mississippi Valley State
Jaylia Reed	Jr	5-06	33.5	9.6	3.1	2.2	Mississippi Valley State
Leah Perry	Jr	6-00	7.5	1.5	1.2	0.1	Mississippi Valley State
Leah Turner	Fr	5-07	14.9	5.2	2.2	0.9	Mississippi Valley State
Lizzie Walker	Jr	5-10	26.5	6.1	5.5	1.0	Mississippi Valley State
Lucia Lara	Fr	6-03	12.2	1.7	1.7	0.2	Mississippi Valley State
Sadie Williams	Jr	5-09	17.6	3.8	2.0	0.8	Mississippi Valley State
Sh'Diamond McKnight	Jr	5-07	25.9	13.4	3.8	3.2	Mississippi Valley State
Zyan Reynolds	Jr	6-04	12.4	0.0	2.0	0.2	Mississippi Valley State