I am working on a player-based projection system, similar to how Bart Torvik does it. For now, the main projections are team-based, with the main inputs being:

1. Reversion to conference mean.
2. Coaching change factor = a fired coach results in a positive benefit, a good coach hired away produces a negative one.
3. Generic increase in performance for remaining players on roster.

It's okay, and generally mirrors some of the early subjective predictions. But we can do better.

Montana State

Player	Class	Height	Avg Minutes	Avg Points	Avg Rebounds	Avg Assists	2025 Team
Brooke Berry	Fr	6-00	9.4	2.2	1.6	0.3	Montana State
Drea Brumfield	So	6-02	4.8	0.5	1.2	0.2	Montana State
Ella Johnson	Fr	6-02	15.2	1.5	2.9	0.4	Montana State
Esmeralda Morales	Jr	5-05	35.5	16.5	2.4	2.8	Montana State
Hannah Robbins	Fr	6-00	12.0	3.0	5.0	0.5	Montana State
Isobel Bunyan	Fr	6-00	20.8	5.1	2.5	1.3	Montana State
Lea Boulanger	Fr	6-02	4.0	0.7	0.1	0.2	Montana State
Lindsey Hein	So	6-06	11.6	3.2	2.5	0.5	Montana State
Malea Egan	Fr	5-06	8.8	1.3	1.2	0.1	Montana State
Marah Dykstra	So	6-02	29.9	11.0	5.6	2.6	Montana State
Natalie Picton	Fr	5-05	28.3	7.3	2.2	2.1	Montana State