I am working on a player-based projection system, similar to how Bart Torvik does it.
For now, the main projections are team-based, with the main inputs being:
1. Reversion to conference mean.
2. Coaching change factor = a fired coach results in a positive benefit, a good coach hired away produces a negative one.
3. Generic increase in performance for remaining players on roster.
It's okay, and generally mirrors some of the early subjective predictions. But we can do better.
| Player | Class | Height | Avg Minutes | Avg Points | Avg Rebounds | Avg Assists | 2025 Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allie Cummins | Fr | 5-09 | 8.0 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | Northern Arizona |
| Audrey Taylor | So | 5-06 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | Northern Arizona |
| Ava Schmidt | Fr | 6-02 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | Northern Arizona |
| Grace Beasley | Jr | 5-07 | 20.8 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 2.8 | Northern Arizona |
| Leia Beattie | Jr | 5-09 | 28.0 | 11.9 | 4.9 | 2.6 | Northern Arizona |
| Nyah Moran | Jr | 5-11 | 27.8 | 7.8 | 2.4 | 2.1 | Northern Arizona |
| Olivia Moran | Jr | 5-11 | 22.8 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 1.8 | Northern Arizona |
| Reilly Clark | Fr | 5-10 | 3.1 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | Northern Arizona |
| Saniyah Neverson | So | 6-01 | 15.4 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 0.9 | Northern Arizona |
| Sophie Glancey | So | 6-02 | 25.8 | 15.7 | 7.3 | 0.9 | Northern Arizona |
| Taylor Feldman | So | 5-08 | 20.7 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | Northern Arizona |