I am working on a player-based projection system, similar to how Bart Torvik does it. For now, the main projections are team-based, with the main inputs being:

1. Reversion to conference mean.
2. Coaching change factor = a fired coach results in a positive benefit, a good coach hired away produces a negative one.
3. Generic increase in performance for remaining players on roster.

It's okay, and generally mirrors some of the early subjective predictions. But we can do better.

Tarleton State

Player	Class	Height	Avg Minutes	Avg Points	Avg Rebounds	Avg Assists	2025 Team
Andjela Bigovic	So	6-05	15.8	5.6	3.7	1.2	Tarleton State
Anya McKenzie	Fr	6-02	7.0	0.5	1.8	0.5	Tarleton State
Elise Turrubiates		6-00	25.2	8.6	5.6	1.4	Tarleton State
Faith Acker	Fr	6-02	19.4	9.0	5.8	0.7	Tarleton State
Jakoriah Long	Jr	5-07	28.8	11.2	2.7	2.5	Tarleton State
Karyn Sanford		6-00	14.1	3.5	2.1	1.1	Tarleton State
Malgorzata Byczkowska	So	5-11	4.9	0.2	0.2	0.1	Tarleton State
Miannah Little	Jr	5-06	22.0	7.3	2.4	1.9	Tarleton State
Nykesha Sanders	Jr	5-07	11.6	1.0	0.8	1.5	Tarleton State
Teresa Da Silva		5-08	19.3	6.2	2.3	1.0	Tarleton State
Teresa Maggio	Fr	5-06	10.1	3.1	1.7	0.6	Tarleton State
Tyler Jackson		5-09	25.9	6.9	3.5	1.4	Tarleton State
Vitoria Carvalho	Jr	6-03	5.6	1.2	1.6	0.2	Tarleton State