I am working on a player-based projection system, similar to how Bart Torvik does it.
For now, the main projections are team-based, with the main inputs being:
1. Reversion to conference mean.
2. Coaching change factor = a fired coach results in a positive benefit, a good coach hired away produces a negative one.
3. Generic increase in performance for remaining players on roster.
It's okay, and generally mirrors some of the early subjective predictions. But we can do better.
| Player | Class | Height | Avg Minutes | Avg Points | Avg Rebounds | Avg Assists | 2025 Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmya Boyce | Jr | 5-06 | 28.4 | 12.0 | 2.5 | 2.5 | Texas A&M-Commerce |
| Cora Horvath | Fr | 5-07 | 22.1 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 | Texas A&M-Commerce |
| Dorian Norris | 5-11 | 15.1 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 0.5 | Texas A&M-Commerce | |
| Harper Biley | Fr | 6-01 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Texas A&M-Commerce |
| Jada Hood | 5-06 | 10.9 | 6.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | Texas A&M-Commerce | |
| Jamy De Kock | Jr | 5-11 | 17.8 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 1.7 | Texas A&M-Commerce |
| Jasmine Payne | 6-00 | 17.2 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 0.5 | Texas A&M-Commerce | |
| Jordyn Beaty | 6-00 | 16.2 | 4.7 | 6.7 | 0.5 | Texas A&M-Commerce | |
| Jordyn Newsome | Jr | 5-08 | 31.9 | 12.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | Texas A&M-Commerce |
| Lucia Hervia | Fr | 5-11 | 4.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | Texas A&M-Commerce |
| Olivia Russell | 5-11 | 19.0 | 3.7 | 6.2 | 0.5 | Texas A&M-Commerce |