I am working on a player-based projection system, similar to how Bart Torvik does it. For now, the main projections are team-based, with the main inputs being:

1. Reversion to conference mean.
2. Coaching change factor = a fired coach results in a positive benefit, a good coach hired away produces a negative one.
3. Generic increase in performance for remaining players on roster.

It's okay, and generally mirrors some of the early subjective predictions. But we can do better.

Texas State

Player	Class	Height	Avg Minutes	Avg Points	Avg Rebounds	Avg Assists	2025 Team
Blake Matthews	So	5-04	27.8	6.6	4.0	2.9	Texas State
Crystal Smith	Jr	5-09	11.1	4.1	1.2	0.7	Texas State
Emillia Steele	Fr	5-10	5.3	0.7	0.7	1.0	Texas State
Jaylin Foster	Jr	6-00	24.6	9.4	4.6	1.7	Texas State
Julia Coleman	Fr	6-00	10.5	5.9	3.1	0.3	Texas State
Kennedy Claybrooks	So	5-06	13.0	3.0	1.0	1.8	Texas State
Mia Galbraith	Fr	5-09	3.6	0.3	0.4	0.1	Texas State
Taleiyah Gibbs	Fr	6-00	5.8	2.2	0.8	0.2	Texas State
Tiffany Tullis	Jr	5-11	23.2	7.5	6.6	1.4	Texas State