I am working on a player-based projection system, similar to how Bart Torvik does it. For now, the main projections are team-based, with the main inputs being:

1. Reversion to conference mean.
2. Coaching change factor = a fired coach results in a positive benefit, a good coach hired away produces a negative one.
3. Generic increase in performance for remaining players on roster.

It's okay, and generally mirrors some of the early subjective predictions. But we can do better.

Toledo

Player	Class	Height	Avg Minutes	Avg Points	Avg Rebounds	Avg Assists	2025 Team
Cadence Dykstra	Fr	5-08	3.8	0.8	0.6	0.3	Toledo
Ella Doherty	Jr	5-11	1.7	0.2	0.4	0.1	Toledo
Ella Weaver	Fr	6-00	3.7	0.7	0.4	0.2	Toledo
Emmi Rinat	Jr	6-00	19.5	4.9	2.1	2.1	Toledo
Jessica Cook	Jr	6-02	11.7	5.9	3.5	0.7	Toledo
Macey Fegan	Fr	5-11	2.2	0.8	1.3	0.1	Toledo