I am working on a player-based projection system, similar to how Bart Torvik does it. For now, the main projections are team-based, with the main inputs being:

1. Reversion to conference mean.
2. Coaching change factor = a fired coach results in a positive benefit, a good coach hired away produces a negative one.
3. Generic increase in performance for remaining players on roster.

It's okay, and generally mirrors some of the early subjective predictions. But we can do better.

UTSA

Player	Class	Height	Avg Minutes	Avg Points	Avg Rebounds	Avg Assists	2025 Team
Alexis Parker	So	5-09	8.4	1.4	1.2	0.4	UTSA
Aysia Proctor	Fr	5-08	25.2	9.7	5.1	1.4	UTSA
Cheyenne Rowe	Fr	6-02	8.5	2.3	2.4	0.2	UTSA
Elyssa Coleman	Jr	6-03	25.4	10.4	7.2	0.7	UTSA
Emma Lucio	Fr	5-09	7.2	1.2	0.8	0.5	UTSA
Idara Udo	Fr	6-01	20.6	7.4	5.9	0.8	UTSA
Madison Cockrell	So	5-04	7.5	1.6	1.4	0.4	UTSA
Maya Linton	So	5-11	14.7	2.9	3.7	0.3	UTSA
Sidney Love	So	5-08	30.4	9.6	3.7	3.2	UTSA
Siena Guttadauro	So	5-06	9.9	2.9	1.3	0.7	UTSA